LyDia's Lab
Strikeout Projections
How many strikeouts should each starter get tonight? Built from three things: his whiff skill, how deep he pitches, and how much the opposing lineup swings and misses against his throwing hand — pitch by pitch.
How to read it: the projection is a median expectation — a real outing lands within ±2 of it roughly two-thirds of the time, so treat small edges with respect and only lean when the gap to your book's line is 0.7+ strikeouts. Expected innings is editable — change it and the projection recalculates in your browser. Nothing is published and no graded pick changes. Open Swing-and-miss alignment to see which pitches carry the matchup. In Opposing lineup, PA is the sample size, OBP is on-base rate, ISO (SLG − AVG) is power, K% is strikeout rate — all over the last 30 days, colored at the good/bad ends. The bottom row is the lineup's average K% — the number that actually drives the over/under case.
Projecting strikeouts…