LyDia team

Meet Lynold Mercado, LyDia's Model Developer

Lynold Mercado, founder and model developer at LyDia

Lynold Mercado
Founder and Model Developer, LyDia

@Kid_lynold on X

MLB Sports modeling Sports betting Model calibration

Background

Lynold Mercado is the founder of LyDia and the person who writes and maintains the model behind every pick on this site. LyDia started from a straightforward frustration with the sports betting content that already existed: almost none of it showed its work, and almost none of it showed its losses.

LyDia was built the opposite way. The model publishes a win probability for every game, compares it against a no-vig market number from up to nine sportsbooks, and grades the outcome in public the next morning. Losing picks stay on the results page permanently. So do the games the model passed on, along with the reason it passed.

He works on the model itself rather than writing daily opinions. That means the pitching inputs, the bullpen risk index, the park factors inside the totals projections, and the calibration system that checks whether the model's stated probabilities actually match what happens. When a metric turns out to be wrong, the correction and the reason are written down rather than quietly patched.

What Lynold works on

Moneyline model
Win probability and official pick gates
Bullpen system
Fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk
Totals projections
Lineups, starters, park, bullpen
Calibration
Grading the model against real results

Editorial approach

Where to find the work

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