LyDia daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, July 25, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
3
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
4
WATCHLIST
3
PASSES
8
Updated Jul 25, 12:07 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Game total: Over 8.5 -107
- LyDia side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.9/10
- Model probability
- 65.3%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +11.9%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.4/10. Houston Astros has used 12.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why LyDia made this decisionChicago White Sox grades as a strong value setup with 65.3% model win probability against a 53.4% market number and a 8.9/10 Lab Rating. Chicago White Sox has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 20 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 6.3/10 and Houston Astros is 7.1/10. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 65.3%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
- LyDia side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.1%
- Market probability
- 53.7%
- Model vs market
- +7.5%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 4.3/10, Philadelphia Phillies 4.7/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for New York Yankees versus 3.9/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
New York Yankees grades as a strong value setup with 61.1% model win probability against a 53.7% market number and a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. New York Yankees has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.4/10 versus 5.3/10. Philadelphia Phillies has 5.7 relief innings over the last three days, 2 back-to-back arms. Philadelphia Phillies's pen has been below average lately (3.9/10 efficiency). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 61.1%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate.
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for New York Yankees versus 3.9/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
New York Yankees grades as a strong value setup with 61.1% model win probability against a 53.7% market number and a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. New York Yankees has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.4/10 versus 5.3/10. Philadelphia Phillies has 5.7 relief innings over the last three days, 2 back-to-back arms. Philadelphia Phillies's pen has been below average lately (3.9/10 efficiency). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 61.1%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
- LyDia side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 67.3%
- Market probability
- 51.9%
- Model vs market
- +15.3%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 7.9/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 13.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionTampa Bay Rays grades as a strong value setup with 67.3% model win probability against a 51.9% market number and a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Tampa Bay Rays has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.5/10 versus 8.5/10. Cleveland Guardians has 13.7 relief innings over the last three days, 4 back-to-back arms. Cleveland Guardians's pen has been below average lately (3.8/10 efficiency). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 67.3%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate; and Lab Rating is 7.9/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
- LyDia side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.7/10
- Model probability
- 66.4%
- Market probability
- 58.3%
- Model vs market
- +8.2%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 4.1/10, New York Mets 4.7/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers grades as a strong value setup with 66.4% model win probability against a 58.3% market number and a 7.7/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 10 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 4.1/10, New York Mets 5.2/10). It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 66.4%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate; and Lab Rating is 7.7/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
- LyDia side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.2/10
- Model probability
- 57.9%
- Market probability
- 51.1%
- Model vs market
- +6.8%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 4.2/10 versus 8.7/10. Atlanta Braves has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionBaltimore Orioles is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 57.9% win probability, the market is at 51.1%, and the setup carries a 7.2/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Baltimore Orioles has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.0/10 versus 9.8/10. Atlanta Braves has 13.0 relief innings over the last three days, 4 back-to-back arms. Atlanta Braves's pen has been struggling lately (2.9/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
- LyDia side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.1/10
- Model probability
- 69.2%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +19.0%
- Current price
- -103
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.4/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.8/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionBoston Red Sox is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 69.2% win probability, the market is at 50.2%, and the setup carries a 7.1/10 Lab Rating. The starting pitching matchup does not create a clear advantage. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.6/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.4/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
- LyDia side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 66.9%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +7.6%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.1/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.8/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 66.9% win probability, the market is at 59.3%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 5 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.7/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.5/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 -104
- LyDia side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 71.3%
- Market probability
- 67.1%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -220
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 6.7/10. Colorado Rockies has used 7.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
- LyDia side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 54.9%
- Market probability
- 49.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.6%
- Current price
- -103
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 5.6/10, St. Louis Cardinals 4.3/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- LyDia side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 56.9%
- Market probability
- 52.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.3%
- Current price
- -116
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3/10, Chicago Cubs 4.9/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
- LyDia side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 50.0%
- Market probability
- 46.4%
- Model vs market
- +3.6%
- Current price
- +116
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Angels is 5.9/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.2/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
- LyDia side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Market probability
- 55.7%
- Model vs market
- -5.1%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 9.4/10. San Diego Padres has used 16.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
- LyDia side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 53.8%
- Market probability
- 51.0%
- Model vs market
- +2.8%
- Current price
- -109
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 4.5/10 versus 6.3/10. Texas Rangers has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days.
Why LyDia made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
- LyDia side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 57.9%
- Market probability
- 58.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.0%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Minnesota Twins has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 1.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Minnesota Twins. Minnesota Twins is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.9/10 risk with 7.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Minnesota Twins versus 1.0/10 for Athletics.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 1.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Minnesota Twins. Minnesota Twins is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.9/10 risk with 7.0/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Minnesota Twins versus 1.0/10 for Athletics.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 -105
- LyDia side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 50.6%
- Market probability
- 56.2%
- Model vs market
- -5.6%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 40 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.2/10 versus 5.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 12.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Model outputs, not promises. LyDia provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.