LyDia daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, July 25, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
3
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
14
Updated Jul 25, 4:15 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
- LyDia side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 66.9%
- Market probability
- 59.3%
- Model vs market
- +7.6%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 7.1/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.8/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionDetroit Tigers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 66.9% win probability, the market is at 59.3%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 5 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.7/10 and Kansas City Royals is 6.5/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Game total: Over 8.5 -107
- LyDia side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 65.3%
- Market probability
- 51.3%
- Model vs market
- +14.0%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 20 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.4/10. Houston Astros has used 12.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 -104
- LyDia side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.0/10
- Model probability
- 71.3%
- Market probability
- 71.8%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -265
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 6.7/10. Colorado Rockies has used 7.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
- LyDia side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 66.4%
- Market probability
- 57.9%
- Model vs market
- +8.5%
- Current price
- -145
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 4.1/10, New York Mets 4.7/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
- LyDia side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.7/10
- Model probability
- 67.3%
- Market probability
- 55.2%
- Model vs market
- +12.1%
- Current price
- -130
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 7.9/10. Cleveland Guardians has used 13.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
- LyDia side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 50.7%
- Market probability
- 53.9%
- Model vs market
- -3.2%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 19 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 5.4/10 versus 9.4/10. San Diego Padres has used 16.7 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
- LyDia side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 50.0%
- Market probability
- 45.7%
- Model vs market
- +4.3%
- Current price
- +115
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Angels is 5.9/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.2/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
- LyDia side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 61.0%
- Market probability
- 40.7%
- Model vs market
- +20.3%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (New York Yankees 4.3/10, Philadelphia Phillies 4.7/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. Tim Mayza is expected to cover about 1.4 innings, leaving roughly 7.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for New York Yankees versus 3.9/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. Tim Mayza is expected to cover about 1.4 innings, leaving roughly 7.6 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.3/10 risk with 3.9/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Yankees. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.9/10 for New York Yankees versus 3.9/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
- LyDia side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.9%
- Market probability
- 45.1%
- Model vs market
- +9.8%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 5.6/10, St. Louis Cardinals 4.3/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
- LyDia side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.7/10
- Model probability
- 69.2%
- Market probability
- 55.5%
- Model vs market
- +13.8%
- Current price
- -136
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.4/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.8/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
- LyDia side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.9%
- Market probability
- 50.8%
- Model vs market
- +7.0%
- Current price
- -109
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 4.2/10 versus 8.7/10. Atlanta Braves has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- LyDia side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 56.9%
- Market probability
- 53.0%
- Model vs market
- +3.8%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3/10, Chicago Cubs 4.9/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
- LyDia side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 53.8%
- Market probability
- 49.6%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 4.5/10 versus 6.3/10. Texas Rangers has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Game total: Over 9 -105
- LyDia side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 50.6%
- Market probability
- 47.0%
- Model vs market
- +3.6%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 40 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.2/10 versus 5.4/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 12.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Mitch Bratt is expected to cover about 2.8 innings, leaving roughly 6.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.1/10 risk with 3.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.9/10 for Washington Nationals versus 3.7/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Arizona Diamondbacks is using a bullpen game. Mitch Bratt is expected to cover about 2.8 innings, leaving roughly 6.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.1/10 risk with 3.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Washington Nationals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.9/10 for Washington Nationals versus 3.7/10 for Arizona Diamondbacks.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
- LyDia side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 55.4%
- Market probability
- 57.2%
- Model vs market
- -1.8%
- Current price
- -139
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.9/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Minnesota Twins has used 13.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 1.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Minnesota Twins. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Minnesota Twins versus 1.0/10 for Athletics.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Brady Basso is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 1.0/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Minnesota Twins. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.0/10 for Minnesota Twins versus 1.0/10 for Athletics.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Model outputs, not promises. LyDia provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.