LyDia daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, July 28, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
16
OFFICIAL PICKS
10
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
14
Updated Jul 28, 12:43 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
Get tomorrow's MLB model card free
One email, every morning. No payment required.
Get the organized member view
Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael King Under 5.5 -138
- LyDia side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 64.4%
- Market probability
- 65.3%
- Model vs market
- -0.8%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 34 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 4.5/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 10.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 64.4% win probability, the market is at 65.3%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 34 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 6.2/10 and Colorado Rockies is 6.7/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Chase Burns Under 6.5 -125
- LyDia side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 62.5%
- Market probability
- 46.0%
- Model vs market
- +16.5%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 4.9/10, Cleveland Guardians 4.2/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionCincinnati Reds is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. LyDia projects 62.5% win probability, the market is at 46.0%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. No meaningful bullpen risk edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 3.5/10, Cleveland Guardians 3.4/10).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Shane Bieber Under 4.5 -164
- LyDia side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.3/10
- Model probability
- 77.2%
- Market probability
- 56.1%
- Model vs market
- +21.1%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.0/10 versus 5.8/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 14.0 bullpen innings over the last three days with 1 back-to-back arm.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Bennett Over 3.5 -148
- LyDia side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.1/10
- Model probability
- 68.7%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- +11.2%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.6/10 and Athletics is 7.2/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
- LyDia side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 63.1%
- Market probability
- 51.1%
- Model vs market
- +11.9%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago Cubs is 6.5/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 5.5/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
St. Louis Cardinals is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.8/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.7/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.5/10 for St. Louis Cardinals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
St. Louis Cardinals is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.8/10 risk with 4.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Chicago Cubs. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.7/10 for Chicago Cubs versus 4.5/10 for St. Louis Cardinals.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dean Kremer Over 4.5 -140
- LyDia side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 56.7%
- Model vs market
- -3.2%
- Current price
- -138
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 6.2/10 and Baltimore Orioles is 7.7/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
- LyDia side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 54.3%
- Market probability
- 59.2%
- Model vs market
- -4.9%
- Current price
- -153
- Pitcher edge
- Atlanta Braves by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.2/10 and New York Mets is 5.0/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Aaron Nola Under 5.5 -159
- LyDia side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.1%
- Market probability
- 50.9%
- Model vs market
- +3.1%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Miami Marlins is 7.1/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 8.0/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Griffin Jax Under 5.5 -121
- LyDia side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 59.9%
- Market probability
- 61.5%
- Model vs market
- -1.7%
- Current price
- -172
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.2/10 and Texas Rangers is 5.8/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Texas Rangers is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Tampa Bay Rays. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 8.0/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 3.2/10 for Texas Rangers.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Texas Rangers is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.7/10 risk with 3.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Tampa Bay Rays. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 8.0/10 for Tampa Bay Rays versus 3.2/10 for Texas Rangers.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
- LyDia side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 59.9%
- Market probability
- 57.7%
- Model vs market
- +2.1%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Milwaukee Brewers 4.9/10, San Francisco Giants 4.9/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
- LyDia side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 51.2%
- Market probability
- 60.8%
- Model vs market
- -9.6%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.1/10 and Kansas City Royals is 5.4/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Game total: Over 8 -102
- LyDia side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 52.4%
- Market probability
- 52.9%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -116
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 11 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. New York Yankees is 8.2/10 and Chicago White Sox is 9.1/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why LyDia made this decisionMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Gavin Williams Over 7.5 -130
- LyDia side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.0%
- Market probability
- 46.0%
- Model vs market
- +8.0%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Cincinnati Reds 4.9/10, Cleveland Guardians 4.2/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Cincinnati Reds is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.5/10 risk with 7.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.9/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 6.7/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Cincinnati Reds is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 3.5/10 risk with 7.9/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 7.9/10 for Cincinnati Reds versus 6.7/10 for Cleveland Guardians.
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Peter Lambert Over 5.5 +108
- LyDia side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.9/10
- Model probability
- 53.2%
- Market probability
- 50.1%
- Model vs market
- +3.2%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Houston Astros is 8.8/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 8.7/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- LyDia side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 61.9%
- Market probability
- 62.9%
- Model vs market
- -1.0%
- Current price
- -180
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Los Angeles Dodgers 4.8/10, Seattle Mariners 5.0/10).
Why LyDia made this decisionBullpen game impact
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 1.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 1.5/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 6.3/10 for Seattle Mariners.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. TBD is expected to cover about 4.5 innings, leaving roughly 4.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 6.6/10 risk with 1.5/10 recent efficiency. Because this is LyDia's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 1.5/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 6.3/10 for Seattle Mariners.
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- LyDia side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 53.7%
- Market probability
- 48.8%
- Model vs market
- +4.9%
- Current price
- +101
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 5.9/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 6.3/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. LyDia provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.