MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at loanDepot park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Phillies vs Marlins
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 84°F, 11% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5.2 | 6.5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 68 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.3% | 50.7% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 5.2 | 6.5 |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Sandy Alcantara a 18-point edge over Aaron Nola, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.06 vs 2.08) and expected innings (6.5 vs 5.2).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (96 graded starts). Official K picks require a 0.7+ strikeout edge, a posted price from at least two books, and a confirmed non-opener workload of at least four expected innings.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10, averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.11 against +0.03).
| Metric | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-50 | 53-54 |
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.11 | +0.03 |
| Runs scored / game (offense) | 4.36 | 4.41 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, lower better) | 4.48 | 4.38 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.745 | 0.652 |
| Season OPS | 0.706 | 0.733 |
| OPS change | +0.039 | -0.081 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.9% | 21.8% |
| K% last 15 days | 27.7% | 27.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand | 0.712 | 0.742 |
Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; offense splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including hot and cold streaks and the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.0/10, Tired | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.6/10, Effective | 1.3/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 9.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 17.3 | 10.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 2 |
| 3-day ERA | 3.63 | 10.45 |
| 3-day WHIP | 1.15 | 2.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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