Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Tuesday, August 4, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
8
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
1
PASSES
14
Updated Aug 4, 11:40 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.5/10
- Model probability
- 65.6%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +12.2%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers has the fresher bullpen, 6.6/10 versus 8.7/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 39.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 65.6% win probability, the market is at 53.4%, and the setup carries a 6.5/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 7.3/10 and Pittsburgh Pirates is 8.8/10.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Brady Singer Under 4.5 +106
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 55.6%
- Model vs market
- +16.3%
- Current price
- -129
- Pitcher edge
- Athletics by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 7.6/10 and Athletics is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 -110
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 61.2%
- Market probability
- 52.9%
- Model vs market
- +8.3%
- Current price
- -115
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Houston Astros is 7.3/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 6.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 -160
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 67.7%
- Market probability
- 57.4%
- Model vs market
- +10.3%
- Current price
- -140
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 7.2/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 8.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 59.6%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Model vs market
- +6.2%
- Current price
- -116
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.6/10 and Chicago White Sox is 7.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 51.9%
- Market probability
- 50.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.9%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 9.2/10. San Diego Padres has used 37.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 -156
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.6/10
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Market probability
- 43.0%
- Model vs market
- +8.5%
- Current price
- +124
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Detroit Tigers 5.6/10, Seattle Mariners 5.3/10).
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 -154
Pitcher Ks: Cade Povich Under 4.5 +102
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 62.2%
- Market probability
- 56.0%
- Model vs market
- +6.2%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Baltimore Orioles has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.0/10. Los Angeles Angels has used 24.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.5%
- Market probability
- 53.5%
- Model vs market
- +4.0%
- Current price
- -121
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 21 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 7.1/10. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 60.2%
- Market probability
- 58.6%
- Model vs market
- +1.7%
- Current price
- -150
- Pitcher edge
- Colorado Rockies by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Tampa Bay Rays is 6.4/10 and Colorado Rockies is 5.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 61.9%
- Market probability
- 48.9%
- Model vs market
- +12.9%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.7/10 and Kansas City Royals is 5.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Grant Holmes Under 4.5 +100
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 60.2%
- Market probability
- 54.1%
- Model vs market
- +6.1%
- Current price
- -125
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Atlanta Braves is 6.0/10 and Miami Marlins is 5.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 -103
- Leo side
- San Francisco Giants Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.2/10
- Model probability
- 53.6%
- Market probability
- 37.0%
- Model vs market
- +16.6%
- Current price
- +160
- Pitcher edge
- San Francisco Giants by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Francisco Giants is 6.7/10 and Texas Rangers is 7.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.0/10
- Model probability
- 54.6%
- Market probability
- 59.4%
- Model vs market
- -4.8%
- Current price
- -155
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Philadelphia Phillies carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.8/10 versus 4.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Philadelphia Phillies has used 17.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Carson Palmquist is expected to cover about 1.8 innings, leaving roughly 7.2 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.4/10 risk with 4.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 4.2/10 for Washington Nationals.
Market is higher than Leo's model probability.
Washington Nationals is using a bullpen game. Carson Palmquist is expected to cover about 1.8 innings, leaving roughly 7.2 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.4/10 risk with 4.2/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Philadelphia Phillies. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.8/10 for Philadelphia Phillies versus 4.2/10 for Washington Nationals.
Market is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.5/10
- Model probability
- 54.2%
- Market probability
- 51.5%
- Model vs market
- +2.7%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 5.6/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 6.3/10.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.