MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at Chase Field · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Padres vs Diamondbacks
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | Randy Vásquez vs Eduardo Rodriguez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 105°F, 1% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 54 | 76 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.3% | 47.0% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 4.9 | 5.9 |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Eduardo Rodriguez a 22-point edge over Randy Vásquez, driven mainly by ERA (2.48 vs 4.45) and expected innings (5.9 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (150 graded starts). Official K picks are taken from LyDia's locked published card, which requires a 0.7+ strikeout edge, a posted price from at least two books, a confirmed non-opener workload of at least four expected innings, and a posted starting lineup. Plays shown here that are not on the card are qualifying projections only.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 8-2 in their last 10, averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.14 against +0.05).
| Metric | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.775 | 0.784 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.8% | 17.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 58-55 | 60-53 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.14 | +0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.19 | 4.54 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.33 | 4.49 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.706 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.2% | 19.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.670 | 0.677 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.2/10, High risk | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.2/10, Effective | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.6/10, High risk | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 37.3 | 20.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.89 | 5.31 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.04 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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