LyDia daily card
MLB Picks | Thursday, August 13, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
9
OFFICIAL PICKS
4
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
0
PASSES
9
Updated Aug 13, 1:16 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 -122
Pitcher Ks: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 -158
- LyDia side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 54.4%
- Market probability
- 56.9%
- Model vs market
- -2.5%
- Current price
- -137
- Pitcher edge
- Boston Red Sox by 39 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.9/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 8.2/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
- LyDia side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 61.8%
- Market probability
- 48.7%
- Model vs market
- +13.1%
- Current price
- +100
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Detroit Tigers is 5.8/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 6.4/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
- LyDia side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.4/10
- Model probability
- 63.0%
- Market probability
- 60.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.9%
- Current price
- -156
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge
- Bullpen read
- New York Yankees carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.6/10 versus 5.5/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Yankees has used 17.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
- LyDia side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 58.9%
- Market probability
- 46.8%
- Model vs market
- +12.1%
- Current price
- +112
- Pitcher edge
- Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Miami Marlins has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 6.8/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Pass reasonStarting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
- LyDia side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 59.2%
- Market probability
- 57.9%
- Model vs market
- +1.4%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 8.1/10. Washington Nationals has used 26.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
- LyDia side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 53.9%
- Market probability
- 50.2%
- Model vs market
- +3.8%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 6.3/10 and Philadelphia Phillies is 6.5/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Davis Martin Over 4.5 -119
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 -110
- LyDia side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.6/10
- Model probability
- 57.8%
- Market probability
- 55.0%
- Model vs market
- +2.8%
- Current price
- -122
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Chicago White Sox is 7.1/10 and Cincinnati Reds is 5.7/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
- LyDia side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 50.6%
- Market probability
- 58.3%
- Model vs market
- -7.7%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Texas Rangers has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 8.6/10. Los Angeles Angels has used 30.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- LyDia side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.8/10
- Model probability
- 52.0%
- Market probability
- 42.8%
- Model vs market
- +9.2%
- Current price
- +131
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Milwaukee Brewers is 6.2/10 and Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.4/10.
Why LyDia made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. LyDia provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.