MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, August 13, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 3:07 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Red Sox vs Blue Jays
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, August 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 8% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4 |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 38 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.20 | 7.25 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.53 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.4 | 6.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 21.8% | 7.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.5% | 16.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.7% | 9.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.4% | 37.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.6% | 62.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Payton Tolle a 39-point edge over Max Scherzer, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.09 vs 2.75) and ERA (3.20 vs 7.25).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.66 against -0.44).
| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.823 | 0.670 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.358 | 0.297 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.1 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.3% | 19.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.794 (+0.073 vs szn) | 0.646 (-0.035 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.62 (+1.190 vs szn) | 3.46 (-0.489 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.346 (+0.027 vs szn) | 0.287 (-0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.7% (-1.0% vs szn) | 19.3% |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.346 wOBA to 0.287. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.027 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-56 | 59-63 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.66 | -0.44 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.42 | 3.95 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.77 | 4.39 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.681 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.704 | 0.628 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.9/10, Tired | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 8.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 32.7 | 31.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 10 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.86 | 2.90 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.26 | 1.58 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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