MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 3, 2026 at Coors Field · 8:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Rays vs Rockies
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
No market data available, so this stays research-only until pricing is checked.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 94°F, 5% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 62 | 37 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.2% | 51.3% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 4.1 | 4.7 |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Tampa Bay Rays pitching plan the edge over Michael Lorenzen (47 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Ian Seymour is projected for only 4.1 innings, with the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Tampa Bay Rays blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Michael Lorenzen's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Tampa Bay Rays, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than the named starter, so LyDia scores that side's pitching-plan edge off its whole-game effective ERA (starter plus the bullpen behind him, weighted by expected innings) instead of crediting the starter alone for innings he is not projected to throw.
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rockies are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.28 against -0.88).
| Metric | Rays | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.712 | 0.708 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.8% | 23.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 65-46 | 45-67 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.28 | -0.88 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.36 | 4.80 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.08 | 5.68 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.743 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.751 | 0.711 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 3.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.6/10, Average | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 3.2/10, Fresh |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 10.0 | 5.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 4 |
| 3-day ERA | 5.40 | 3.38 |
| 3-day WHIP | 1.10 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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