MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Orioles Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, August 6, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 12:35 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Baltimore Orioles moneyline
The case for Baltimore Orioles
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Baltimore Orioles remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 20.1, pitching plan 20, bullpen 4.57, offense 20.42. LyDia projects 59.7% against a 63.8% no-vig market number, a -4.1% model edge at -183. Baltimore Orioles owns the starting pitcher edge by 33 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Baltimore Orioles's pen efficiency: Struggling (2.9/10). Lineup check: Baltimore Orioles is in a cold stretch (-0.061 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is in a cold stretch (-0.099 OPS).
Final result
Angels 4, Orioles 1
Postgame analysis for this game is being compiled.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, August 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Oriole Park at Camden Yards |
| Starting pitchers | Ryan Johnson vs Brandon Young |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 87°F, 1% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 36 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 7.63 | 3.31 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.59 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.1% | 11.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.5% | 19.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 8.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.4% | 46.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.6% | 53.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Brandon Young a 33-point edge over Ryan Johnson, driven mainly by ERA (3.31 vs 7.63) and HR/9 (0.96 vs 2.35).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 2-8 in their last 10, averaging 2.6 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Orioles are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Orioles carry the better run differential per game (-0.26 against -0.69).
| Metric | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.594 | 0.650 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.9% | 24.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.650 (-0.043 vs szn) | 0.701 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.22 (-0.932 vs szn) | 4.30 (-0.213 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.291 (-0.017 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.5% (+1.2% vs szn) | 25.3% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Orioles have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.291. Angels are striking out at 26.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 43-71 | 56-58 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.69 | -0.26 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.15 | 4.52 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.84 | 4.78 |
| Season OPS | 0.693 | 0.711 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 24.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.688 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Orioles are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.6/10, Normal | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 2.9/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 5.2/10, Normal | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.7 | 15.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.91 | 6.60 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.20 | 1.73 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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