MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, September 10, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 1:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Houston Astros
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 73.0% model win probability and 7.7/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 73.0% against a 49.9% no-vig market number, a 23.1% model edge at -102. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 30 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Average (4.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.8 points from 95.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.0%. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is near its season form (-0.013 OPS); Houston Astros is in a cold stretch (-0.053 OPS).
Final result
Astros 2, Phillies 1
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Cristian Javier: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Houston Astros bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: the Houston Astros bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.0 innings), unflagged pregame, and the opposing starter (1.50 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, September 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Cristian Javier vs Zack Wheeler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 48 | 77 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.50 | 3.14 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.46 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.2% | 22.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.6% | 30.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 7.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.6% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 71.4% | 50.0% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Zack Wheeler the edge over the Houston Astros pitching plan (18 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Cristian Javier is projected for only 4⅓ innings, with the Houston Astros bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Zack Wheeler's own line against the Houston Astros blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Houston Astros, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Cristian Javier (about 4⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.59 rather than Cristian Javier's own 5.50. Whole-game, that is 3.43 for the Philadelphia Phillies against 4.59 on the other side, so the blended read leans Philadelphia Phillies.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.25 against -0.27).
| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.672 | 0.700 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.296 | 0.309 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.6% | 20.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.679 (-0.046 vs szn) | 0.723 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.577 vs szn) | 4.63 (+0.147 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.296 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% (+1.5% vs szn) | 18.5% (-3.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.296.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-72 | 82-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.27 | +0.25 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.50 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.78 | 4.23 |
| Season OPS | 0.725 | 0.713 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.730 | 0.713 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 4.4/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.3/10, Tired | 4.7/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 15.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.92 | 5.40 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.35 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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