MLB matchup analysis

Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick

Thursday, August 27, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET

Lynold Mercado
Founder and Model Developer · Updated Aug 27, 2026, 10:17 PM EDT

Watchlist

LyDia prediction: New York Yankees moneyline

Lab Rating

6.9/10

Model lean

Yankees 73.0%

Market probability

59.2%

Model edge

+13.8%

Best moneyline

-153

Sportsbooks checked

LyDia model

73.0%

Market

59.2%

The case for New York Yankees

Starting pitcher edge: 14 points

LyDia gives Gerrit Cole a 14-point edge over Hayden Wesneski, driven mainly by K-BB% (20.9% vs 12.0%) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.3).

Late-inning bullpen advantage

Houston Astros relievers have a 8.76 ERA over the last 7 days; New York Yankees relievers have a 3.42. If this is still close after six innings, that gap favors New York Yankees.

The case for Houston Astros

The case is thin

The model finds little going Houston Astros's way — it trails on the pitching plan, bullpen, and recent form. The main path to a Houston Astros win is variance.

Why it is not official

Setup quality below the bar

Lab Rating is 6.9/10, under the 7.2/10 required for an official pick.

Why the setup score is what it is

Conviction: 9.01/10

LyDia's win probability for New York Yankees (73.0%) is well clear of a coin flip -- this is a real, stated lean, not a guess.

Pitching plan: 27/30

Gerrit Cole rates 77 on LyDia's pitcher score, judged on its own merits (50-80 is the credited range). That is a strong start on its own, and it earns most or all of the available credit here.

Bullpen: 7.58/10

New York Yankees's bullpen carries a real edge over Houston Astros's tonight.

Offense: 25.6/50

New York Yankees's recent offensive form clearly outpaces Houston Astros's over the tracked windows.

Why the price is what it is

Team strength: 59.8%

Before any pitcher or bullpen adjustment, LyDia's team-strength model alone makes New York Yankees 59.8% to win. Everything below moves the price from this starting point.

Pitcher score gap: 18 points

The pitcher-score gap favors New York Yankees by 18 points. This is the biggest single mover of the price -- a large gap moves it a lot, a small gap barely moves it.

Bullpen adjustment: +0.087

The bullpen-fatigue gap between the two pens nudges the price toward New York Yankees. This moves the price less than the starting pitchers do, since a starter covers more of the game than the bullpen.

Net effect: 59.8% -> 73.0%

Team strength alone had New York Yankees at 59.8%. After the pitcher and bullpen terms, the price is 73.0% -- the same number shown as Model Lean above.

LyDia Coach — consistency check

Evidence check: Lab Rating's conviction component score

Today's number here (9.01) falls in the second quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown a modest relationship to winning (r=0.108). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 45-40 (52.9%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: LyDia's own win probability for this pick

Today's number here (0.73) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.099). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 53-32 (62.4%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Size of the price (how big a favorite or underdog this pick was)

Today's number here (153.00) falls in the third quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 334 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.068). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 46-37 (55.4%, n=83). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Lab Rating's offense component score

Today's number here (25.60) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.061). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 54-31 (63.5%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Probability points bullpen risk moved this pick's number

Today's number here (0.09) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.056). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 45-40 (52.9%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Bullpen risk edge (positive = the picked side's bullpen is the safer one)

Today's number here (29.00) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.056). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 45-40 (52.9%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Team strength blend edge, before any pitcher/bullpen adjustment (picked side minus opponent)

Today's number here (0.16) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 195 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.053). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 31-20 (60.8%, n=51). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Lab Rating's bullpen component score

Today's number here (7.58) falls in the second quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.047). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 40-45 (47.1%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Lab Rating (LyDia's own analysis-quality score for this pick)

Today's number here (69.00) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.033). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 52-33 (61.2%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Model edge over the market (model prob minus no-vig market prob)

Today's number here (0.14) falls in the third quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 334 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.031). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 49-34 (59.0%, n=83). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Offense wOBA edge, last 15 days (picked side minus opponent)

Today's number here (0.02) falls in the third quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the stronger end of this angle. Across 264 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.021). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 41-25 (62.1%, n=66). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Lab Rating's pitcher-edge component score

Today's number here (27.00) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.014). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 50-35 (58.8%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Starting pitcher score edge (picked side minus opponent)

Today's number here (18.00) falls in the third quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.013). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 49-36 (57.6%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Lab Rating's pitching-plan component score

Today's number here (27.00) falls in the top quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=-0.011). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 47-38 (55.3%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Evidence check: Picked team's own bullpen fatigue score (regardless of the opponent's)

Today's number here (54.00) falls in the bottom quarter of LyDia's historical range -- the weaker end of this angle. Across 340 analyzed games, this input has shown little to no relationship to winning (r=0.004). In that quarter, LyDia's record is 48-37 (56.5%, n=85). A review note only -- not a reason to skip or fade this pick on its own.

Review prompts only, from LyDia's own official-pick history. Not a signal to skip or fade this pick.

The verdict Worth monitoring, nothing more. The setup has pieces but does not add up to a bet at today's price.

Read the full model output

New York Yankees remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.9/10: conviction 9.01, pitching plan 27, bullpen 7.58, offense 25.6. LyDia projects 73.0% against a 59.2% no-vig market number, a 13.8% model edge at -153. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 18 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (5.8/10). Lineup check: New York Yankees is near its season form (+0.001 OPS); Houston Astros is a touch below its season form (-0.043 OPS).

Final result

Astros 5, Yankees 1

How the analysis held up

Houston Astros won. LyDia's model favored the other side.

Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Hayden Wesneski actually pitched better tonight: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 3 ER (4.50 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.

The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.

New York Yankees scored 1, 3.2 fewer than the 4.2 pregame projection.

Likely driver: the Houston Astros bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings), and the opposing starter (1.80 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.

Game information

Matchup	Houston Astros at New York Yankees
Date	Thursday, August 27, 2026
First pitch	7:05 PM ET
Venue	Yankee Stadium
Starting pitchers	Hayden Wesneski vs Gerrit Cole
Weather	Game-time forecast: 73°F, 35% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from S.

Starting pitcher matchup

Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →

Hayden WesneskiAstros · RHP

Gerrit ColeYankees · RHP

Metric	Astros	Yankees
Pitching plan	Traditional starter	Traditional starter
Expected innings	5⅓	5⅔
Throws	R	R
LyDia pitcher score (higher is better)	63	77
ERA (lower is better)	3.86	3.19
WHIP (lower is better)	1.19	1.07
K/9 (higher is better)	7.7	9.6
K-BB% (higher is better)	12.0%	20.9%
K% (higher is better)	21.1%	26.1%
BB% (lower is better)	9.0%	5.2%
BB/9 (lower is better)	3.3	1.9
HR/9 (lower is better)	0.6	1.2
Ground-ball rate	43.1%	37.4%
Fly-ball rate	56.9%	62.6%

Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Gerrit Cole a 14-point edge over Hayden Wesneski, driven mainly by K-BB% (20.9% vs 12.0%) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.3).

How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.

Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →

Hayden Wesneski strikeouts

4.9 LyDia projected Ks

No K play · +0.4K difference is below LyDia's 0.7K threshold

Market 4.5K · O +132 / U -170 · 2 books

Gerrit Cole strikeouts

5.7 LyDia projected Ks

No K play · +0.2K difference is below LyDia's 0.7K threshold

Market 5.5K · O -113 / U -113 · 2 books

Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.

Recent form

Full Stats page →

Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.75 against -0.33).

Metric	Astros	Yankees
Last 10	3-7	7-3
Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home)	6-4 on the road	5-5 at home
OPS, last 15 days	0.685	0.721
wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read)	0.295	0.319
Runs per game, last 15 days	4.3	4.6
K% last 15 days (lower is better)	24.9%	26.4%

Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.

30-day offense

Full offense tool →

Last 30 days	Astros	Yankees
OPS	0.737 (+0.008 vs szn)	0.667 (-0.051 vs szn)
Runs per game	4.54 (-0.036 vs szn)	3.67 (-0.815 vs szn)
wOBA (model offense input)	0.321	0.296 (-0.020 vs szn)
K% (lower is better)	22.2% (+0.6% vs szn)	26.4% (+1.7% vs szn)

Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.296. Yankees are striking out at 26.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.

Season profile

Full Stats page →

Metric	Astros	Yankees
Record	66-67	75-57
Run differential / game (team quality)	-0.33	+0.75
Runs scored / game (offense, season)	4.57	4.48
Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better)	4.90	3.73
Season OPS	0.728	0.720
K% season (lower is better)	21.7%	24.8%
OPS vs opposing hand (season)	0.735	0.717

Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.

The Map

Full interactive map →

Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Yankees are highlighted.

Horizontal Vertical

Bullpen matchup

Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →

Astros

Combined risk

8.3 High risk

Fatigue

6.7 Tired

Efficiency

1.9 Struggling

Yankees

Combined risk

5.4 Normal

Fatigue

5.8 Normal

Efficiency

5.8 Effective

Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.

Metric	Astros	Yankees
Fatigue	6.7/10, Tired	5.8/10, Normal
Efficiency	1.9/10, Struggling	5.8/10, Effective
Combined risk	8.3/10, High risk	5.4/10, Normal
Relief innings, last 7 days	24.7	23.7
Back-to-back arms	4	6
7-day ERA	8.76	3.42
7-day WHIP	1.70	1.10

Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.

Run total projection

Full Totals Projections →

LyDia projection

8.5

Market total

8.0

Projected away runs

3.8

Projected home runs

4.2

Over price

-112

Under price

-102

Houston Astros team total

3.8 projected

Line 3.5 · O -106 / U -110

No team-total lean

New York Yankees team total

4.2 projected

Line 4.5 · O +108 / U -125

No team-total lean

The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.

More games today

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