MLB matchup analysis
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 1:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 74.3% model win probability and 8.1/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 74.3% against a 60.1% no-vig market number, a 14.2% model edge at -158. Tampa Bay Rays owns the starting pitcher edge by 23 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Below average (3.3/10). Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is swinging a hot bat (+0.061 OPS); Toronto Blue Jays is near its season form (+0.015 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, August 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Shane Bieber vs Ian Seymour |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 91°F, 11% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 46 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.99 | 4.11 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 10.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 6.0% | 21.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.1% | 28.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.1% | 7.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.9% | 37.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.1% | 62.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Ian Seymour a 23-point edge over Shane Bieber, driven mainly by K-BB% (21.1% vs 6.0%) and K/9 (10.7 vs 6.8).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.39 against -0.41).
| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.697 | 0.801 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.307 | 0.350 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.1% | 14.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.672 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.759 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.040 vs szn) | 5.04 (+0.450 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.297 | 0.332 |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.4% | 17.7% (-0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.332 wOBA to 0.297.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-66 | 76-50 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.41 | +0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 3.97 | 4.59 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.38 | 4.20 |
| Season OPS | 0.682 | 0.740 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 18.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.628 | 0.765 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Blue Jays and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.5/10, Tired | 7.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 3.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.0 | 32.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 9 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.33 | 6.12 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.67 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.5 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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