MLB matchup analysis
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, July 26, 2026 at Fenway Park · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.8/10: conviction 19.24, model agreement 13.45, pitching plan 13.7, bullpen 6.44, offense 10, data completeness 5. LyDia projects 71.0% against a 56.7% no-vig market number, a 14.3% model edge at -139. Boston Red Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 11 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Below average (4.2/10). Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is a touch above its season form (+0.020 OPS); Toronto Blue Jays is a touch below its season form (-0.044 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, July 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kevin Gausman vs Ranger Suarez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Blue Jays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 62 | 73 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 5.5 | 5.4 |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Ranger Suarez a 11-point edge over Kevin Gausman, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.49 vs 1.17) and ERA (3.15 vs 4.51).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (87 graded starts). Official K picks require a 0.7+ strikeout edge, a posted price from at least two books, and a confirmed non-opener workload of at least four expected innings.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.40 against -0.54).
| Metric | Blue Jays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 48-57 | 53-50 |
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | +0.40 |
| Runs scored / game (offense) | 3.95 | 4.19 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, lower better) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.639 | 0.726 |
| Season OPS | 0.683 | 0.706 |
| OPS change | -0.044 | +0.020 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.6% | 22.0% |
| K% last 15 days | 19.4% | 22.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand | 0.642 | 0.682 |
Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; offense splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including hot and cold streaks and the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Blue Jays and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Blue Jays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.6/10, Normal | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.3/10, Below average | 4.2/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.0/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 6.0 | 8.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 0 |
| 3-day ERA | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| 3-day WHIP | 1.67 | 1.32 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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