MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, August 21, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.9/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 10, bullpen 12.82, offense 26.17. LyDia projects 70.6% against a 69.6% no-vig market number, a 1.0% model edge at -245. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Effective (6.0/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.2 points from 90.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.6%. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is swinging a hot bat (+0.071 OPS); St. Louis Cardinals is a touch above its season form (+0.045 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, August 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Hunter Dobbins vs Jesús Luzardo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.42 | 3.23 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 11.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.2% | 22.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.9% | 7.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.0% | 57.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 49.0% | 42.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jesús Luzardo a 10-point edge over Hunter Dobbins, driven mainly by K-BB% (22.4% vs 13.2%) and K/9 (11.1 vs 8.8).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10, averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.08 against +0.12).
| Metric | Cardinals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.744 | 0.784 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.345 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.1% | 15.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.687 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.743 (+0.030 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.31 (-0.124 vs szn) | 5.04 (+0.554 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.306 | 0.328 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.1% | 17.5% (-4.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.328 wOBA to 0.306. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-63 | 70-58 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.43 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.36 | 4.37 |
| Season OPS | 0.699 | 0.713 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.720 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 6.0/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.3 | 15.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.28 | 2.35 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.24 | 1.37 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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