MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 24, 2026 at Chase Field · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Cubs vs Diamondbacks
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | Kevin Gausman vs Merrill Kelly |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 101°F, 1% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 47 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.58 | 5.37 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.30 | 1.52 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.0 | 5.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.9% | 4.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.5% | 14.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.6% | 10.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.2% | 47.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.8% | 52.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Kevin Gausman a 14-point edge over Merrill Kelly, driven mainly by K-BB% (16.9% vs 4.8%) and K/9 (9.0 vs 5.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.88 against +0.07).
| Metric | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.845 | 0.811 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.365 | 0.353 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.1% | 17.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.810 (+0.048 vs szn) | 0.759 (+0.040 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.75 (+0.529 vs szn) | 4.78 (+0.213 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.353 (+0.017 vs szn) | 0.333 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.4% (+0.6% vs szn) | 17.7% (-1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.353 wOBA to 0.333. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-56 | 69-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.88 | +0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.22 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.34 | 4.50 |
| Season OPS | 0.762 | 0.719 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 19.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.745 | 0.689 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.1/10, High risk | 8.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.6/10, High risk | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.7 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.60 | 4.45 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.27 | 1.48 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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