MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at loanDepot park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Marlins
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Robert Stock vs Janson Junk |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 5% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 37 | 63 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.81 | 4.00 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.75 | 1.28 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 6.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.4% | 9.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.2% | 6.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.1% | 49.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 67.9% | 50.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Janson Junk a 26-point edge over Robert Stock, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.4 vs 4.4) and WHIP (1.28 vs 1.75).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.28 against +0.05).
| Metric | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.717 | 0.691 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.316 | 0.308 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.4% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.729 (+0.029 vs szn) | 0.695 (-0.029 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.35 (+0.125 vs szn) | 4.30 (-0.087 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.311 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.9% (-0.7% vs szn) | 22.9% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.311. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-78 | 72-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.28 | +0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.22 | 4.38 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.50 | 4.33 |
| Season OPS | 0.700 | 0.724 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.5% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.704 | 0.738 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.0/10, Tired | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 8.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.91 | 3.49 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.07 | 1.45 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.7 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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