MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Pirates vs Padres
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Paul Skenes vs Michael King |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 1% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 70 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.95 | 3.38 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.1 | 7.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.7% | 11.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.8% | 21.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.2% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.8% | 50.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.2% | 49.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Michael King a 0-point edge over Paul Skenes, driven mainly by expected innings (5.7 vs 5.3) and ERA (3.38 vs 3.95).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.20 against +0.11).
| Metric | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.642 | 0.778 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.286 | 0.344 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.2% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.656 (-0.080 vs szn) | 0.766 (+0.060 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.96 (-0.968 vs szn) | 4.78 (+0.490 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.293 (-0.033 vs szn) | 0.339 (+0.026 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.1% (+0.7% vs szn) | 19.5% (-2.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.339 wOBA to 0.293. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.026 wOBA). Pirates are striking out at 25.1% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-69 | 71-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.20 | +0.11 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.93 | 4.29 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.74 | 4.17 |
| Season OPS | 0.736 | 0.706 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.764 | 0.711 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.2/10, High risk | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 7.1/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.5/10, High risk | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.3 | 22.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.15 | 1.21 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.13 | 1.07 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.