MLB matchup analysis
Rays vs Athletics Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at Sutter Health Park · 3:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Athletics
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 9.4/10: conviction 35, pitching plan 20, bullpen 13.91, offense 25. LyDia projects 68.4% against a 67.0% no-vig market number, a 1.4% model edge at -217. Tampa Bay Rays owns the starting pitcher edge by 40 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Effective (6.5/10). Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is near its season form (+0.004 OPS); Athletics is in a cold stretch (-0.075 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Sutter Health Park |
| Starting pitchers | Drew Rasmussen vs Jack Perkins |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 43 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.75 | 7.04 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.91 | 1.45 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.4 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.3% | 17.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 26.8% | 26.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.5% | 8.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.3% | 38.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.7% | 61.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Drew Rasmussen a 40-point edge over Jack Perkins, driven mainly by ERA (2.75 vs 7.04) and WHIP (0.91 vs 1.45).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Athletics are 2-8 in their last 10, averaging 3.6 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.49 against -1.47).
| Metric | Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 9-1 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 9-1 on the road | 1-9 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.741 | 0.640 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.322 | 0.283 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.0% | 23.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.743 (+0.006 vs szn) | 0.689 (-0.026 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.64 (+0.094 vs szn) | 4.08 (-0.250 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.324 | 0.304 (-0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.0% | 22.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.324 wOBA to 0.304.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-46 | 47-73 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.49 | -1.47 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.55 | 4.33 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.06 | 5.80 |
| Season OPS | 0.737 | 0.715 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 18.9% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.760 | 0.717 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Rays and Athletics are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 1.8/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.66 | 8.39 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.93 | 1.74 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.7 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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