MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Reds vs Mariners
The case for Seattle Mariners
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Final result
The pregame analysis remains on this URL. Postgame information is added without rewriting the original decision.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, July 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 84°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Probable pitcher | Chase Burns | Luis Castillo |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 79 | 56 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.54 | 4.93 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.3 | 8.3 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.6% | 13.6% |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.0% | 44.8% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 5.7 | 5.1 |
Pitcher edge: Cincinnati Reds by 23 points.
How to read this: highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter, not just any difference. K-BB% is strikeouts minus walks per batter faced, one of the most predictive skill stats in pitching. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout projections Full K board →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (39 graded starts). Leans are context, not official picks.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Offense and recent form
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 45-54 | 51-50 |
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.813 | 0.640 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.688 |
| OPS change | +0.104 | -0.048 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| K% last 15 days | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand | 0.690 | 0.710 |
Season and 15-day splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including hot and cold streaks and the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 1.6/10, Struggling | 8.7/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 7.0/10, Tired | 4.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 1 | 3 |
| 3-day ERA | 10.13 | 0.00 |
| 3-day WHIP | 1.88 | 0.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. This projection is matchup context, not an official total pick unless LyDia explicitly labels it as one.
What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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