MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at PNC Park · 12:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Tigers vs Pirates
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 3% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 3 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 43 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.00 | 3.85 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.44 | 1.13 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.0 | 11.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.2% | 22.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.5% | 29.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.6% | 44.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 44.4% | 55.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Paul Skenes a 28-point edge over Jackson Jobe, driven mainly by expected innings (5.2 vs 3.0) and K-BB% (22.9% vs 12.2%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Tigers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Tigers carry the better run differential per game (+0.66 against +0.23).
| Metric | Tigers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.714 | 0.678 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.320 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.1% | 24.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.780 (+0.054 vs szn) | 0.642 (-0.100 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.57 (+1.052 vs szn) | 3.76 (-1.218 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.342 (+0.022 vs szn) | 0.288 (-0.040 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.8% (-2.7% vs szn) | 24.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.342 wOBA to 0.288. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.022 wOBA). Pirates are striking out at 24.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-65 | 62-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.66 | +0.23 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.56 | 5.02 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.90 | 4.78 |
| Season OPS | 0.726 | 0.742 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.5% | 24.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.738 | 0.764 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 4.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.3 | 26.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.76 | 5.40 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.14 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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