MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 15, 2026 at Comerica Park · 1:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Detroit Tigers moneyline
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Detroit Tigers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 15.85, pitching plan 20, bullpen 17.12, offense 17.21. LyDia projects 58.2% against a 56.4% no-vig market number, a 1.8% model edge at -135. Detroit Tigers owns the starting pitcher edge by 21 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Detroit Tigers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.2/10). Lineup check: Detroit Tigers is swinging a hot bat (+0.072 OPS); Chicago White Sox is a touch above its season form (+0.035 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Anthony Kay vs Troy Melton |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 3% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6 |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.96 | 1.46 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 0.90 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.8% | 14.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.1% | 22.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.2% | 44.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.8% | 55.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Troy Melton a 21-point edge over Anthony Kay, driven mainly by WHIP (0.90 vs 1.34) and ERA (1.46 vs 3.96).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Tigers are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.36 against +0.70).
| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.763 | 0.799 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.336 | 0.354 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.3% | 20.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.715 (-0.013 vs szn) | 0.782 (+0.055 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.96 (+0.143 vs szn) | 5.77 (+1.204 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.316 | 0.342 (+0.021 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.5% (+0.6% vs szn) | 20.4% (-2.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.342 wOBA to 0.316. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.021 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 24.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 63-58 | 60-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.36 | +0.70 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.82 | 4.57 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.45 | 3.86 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.727 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.9% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.728 | 0.701 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.4/10, Below average | 6.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 35.0 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.89 | 2.59 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.43 | 1.15 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.7 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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