Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Friday, September 18, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
17
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
11
Updated Sep 18, 8:38 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Top Lab Rating
Official Pick
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Official markets
Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays -131
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 51.2%
- Model vs market
- +21.4%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 24 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays has the fresher bullpen, 7.7/10 versus 9.4/10. Texas Rangers has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionToronto Blue Jays is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 72.6% chance to win, compared with the market's 51.2% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.9/10 Lab Rating. Toronto Blue Jays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 24 rating points. Toronto Blue Jays has the lower-risk bullpen, 7.7/10 versus 9.4/10. Texas Rangers has 30.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Texas Rangers's pen has been average lately (5.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.4 points from 95.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.6%. At -110, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.9/10
- Model probability
- 72.8%
- Market probability
- 62.0%
- Model vs market
- +10.8%
- Current price
- -175
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 27 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 7.7/10 and Athletics is 7.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.0/10 risk with 2.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland Guardians is using a bullpen game. Daniel Espino is expected to cover about 1.5 innings, leaving roughly 7.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 2.7/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Athletics is using a bullpen game. Mason Barnett is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.0/10 risk with 2.7/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland Guardians is using a bullpen game. Daniel Espino is expected to cover about 1.5 innings, leaving roughly 7.5 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.6/10 risk with 5.2/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 5.2/10 for Cleveland Guardians versus 2.7/10 for Athletics.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Official markets
Moneyline: San Diego Padres -148
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 68.5%
- Market probability
- 58.1%
- Model vs market
- +10.4%
- Current price
- -148
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres has the fresher bullpen, 6.6/10 versus 8.6/10. Miami Marlins has used 28.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 68.5% chance to win, compared with the market's 58.1% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 9 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 7.4/10 and Miami Marlins is 8.3/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.2 points from 86.7% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.5%. At -148, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Clay Holmes Over 4.5 -104
Pitcher Ks: Chase Burns Over 3.5 -130
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 52.3%
- Market probability
- 55.3%
- Model vs market
- -3.0%
- Current price
- -131
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 8.8/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 34.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 52.3% win probability, the market is at 55.3%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the starting pitcher advantage by 4 rating points, which works against Leo's side. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 10.0/10. Cincinnati Reds has 34.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been struggling lately (2.6/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability up 1.3 points from 51.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 52.3%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 71.4%
- Market probability
- 73.0%
- Model vs market
- -1.6%
- Current price
- -300
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.8/10 versus 6.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 27.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.4% win probability, the market is at 73.0%, and the setup carries a 7.0/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.4/10 versus 5.3/10. Recent context: 27.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen has been below average lately (3.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.1 points from 93.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.4%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 71.0%
- Market probability
- 53.3%
- Model vs market
- +17.7%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.8/10 versus 4.9/10, which adds late-game risk. New York Mets has used 24.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. Tim Mayza is expected to cover about 1.6 innings, leaving roughly 7.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 3.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Mets. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.5/10 for New York Mets versus 3.5/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Philadelphia Phillies is using a bullpen game. Tim Mayza is expected to cover about 1.6 innings, leaving roughly 7.4 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 5.7/10 risk with 3.5/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for New York Mets. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 6.5/10 for New York Mets versus 3.5/10 for Philadelphia Phillies.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Dustin May Over 5.5 +100
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 59.7%
- Market probability
- 54.7%
- Model vs market
- +5.1%
- Current price
- -132
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.5/10 versus 7.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 28.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Bryan Woo Over 4.5 -131
Pitcher Ks: Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 -104
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 73.9%
- Market probability
- 62.8%
- Model vs market
- +11.1%
- Current price
- -183
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 30 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.7/10. Colorado Rockies has used 34.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 -146
Pitcher Ks: Ian Seymour Over 5.5 -135
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 55.8%
- Model vs market
- -3.6%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 6.9/10 versus 5.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 21.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Kyle Leahy Over 2.5 -132
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.9/10
- Model probability
- 61.7%
- Market probability
- 45.3%
- Model vs market
- +16.4%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Washington Nationals carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.7/10 versus 6.1/10, which adds late-game risk. Washington Nationals has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Paul Skenes Under 5.5 -122
- Leo side
- Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 53.6%
- Market probability
- 51.6%
- Model vs market
- +2.0%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Pittsburgh Pirates carries the heavier bullpen workload, 10.0/10 versus 4.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 34.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 -135
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 51.5%
- Market probability
- 44.0%
- Model vs market
- +7.5%
- Current price
- +125
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Arizona Diamondbacks carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.4/10 versus 5.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Arizona Diamondbacks has used 25.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 +105
Pitcher Ks: Peter Lambert Over 4.5 -133
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.0/10
- Model probability
- 52.3%
- Market probability
- 48.0%
- Model vs market
- +4.3%
- Current price
- +102
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.8/10. Houston Astros has used 32.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 -138
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.7/10
- Model probability
- 68.9%
- Market probability
- 49.9%
- Model vs market
- +19.1%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Minnesota Twins by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Minnesota Twins carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.9/10 versus 5.7/10, which adds late-game risk. Minnesota Twins has used 28.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Andrew Sears Over 3.5 -151
Pitcher Ks: David Sandlin Over 4.5 +124
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.4/10
- Model probability
- 53.3%
- Market probability
- 55.7%
- Model vs market
- -2.3%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago White Sox carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.4/10 versus 6.3/10, which adds late-game risk. Chicago White Sox has used 41.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 3 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.