MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 18, 2026 at Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: San Diego Padres moneyline
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Miami Marlins
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 68.5% model win probability and 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 68.5% against a 58.1% no-vig market number, a 10.4% model edge at -148. San Diego Padres owns the starting pitcher edge by 9 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. San Diego Padres's pen efficiency: Below average (3.4/10). Pitching plan: Nick Pivetta 4.2 IP + remaining bullpen 4.8 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: San Diego Padres is swinging a hot bat (+0.136 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch above its season form (+0.025 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Tyler Phillips vs Nick Pivetta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 71°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 64 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.3 | 11.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.9% | 25.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.9% | 31.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.1% | 6.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.6% | 36.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.4% | 63.6% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Nick Pivetta a 9-point edge over Tyler Phillips, driven mainly by K-BB% (25.0% vs 8.9%) and K/9 (11.2 vs 7.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.05 against +0.20).
| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 9-1 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.753 | 0.851 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.332 | 0.367 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.4% | 18.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.719 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.760 (+0.045 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.69 (+0.241 vs szn) | 4.88 (+0.519 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 | 0.333 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% (+1.3% vs szn) | 20.4% (-1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.333 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-77 | 84-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.05 | +0.20 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.45 | 4.37 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.40 | 4.17 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.715 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 21.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.742 | 0.719 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.6/10, High risk | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.6/10, Effective | 3.4/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 8.3/10, High risk | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.3 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.49 | 6.29 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.20 | 1.56 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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