MLB matchup analysis
Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 18, 2026 at Great American Ball Park · 6:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 0, pitching plan 30.67, offense 39.65. Leo projects 52.3% against a 55.3% no-vig market number, a -3.0% model edge at -131. Cincinnati Reds owns the starting pitcher edge by 4 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is near its season form (-0.007 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is near its season form (-0.002 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Great American Ball Park |
| Starting pitchers | Clay Holmes vs Chase Burns |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 4% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 76 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.97 | 2.86 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.0% | 20.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.8% | 29.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 64.9% | 39.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 35.1% | 60.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Chase Burns a 4-point edge over Clay Holmes, driven mainly by K/9 (10.8 vs 7.0) and K-BB% (20.5% vs 9.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.93 against -1.01).
| Metric | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.764 | 0.701 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.337 | 0.309 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.1 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.2% | 26.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.838 (+0.067 vs szn) | 0.733 (+0.030 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 6.11 (+0.780 vs szn) | 4.57 (+0.435 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.364 (+0.025 vs szn) | 0.322 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.9% (-3.2% vs szn) | 25.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.364 wOBA to 0.322. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.025 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-68 | 71-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.93 | -1.01 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.34 | 4.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.41 | 5.14 |
| Season OPS | 0.771 | 0.703 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.1% | 25.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.761 | 0.690 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cubs and Reds are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.9/10, Normal | 8.8/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.7/10, Average | 2.6/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.3 | 34.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.19 | 7.41 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.50 | 1.65 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.7 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.