MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 18, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:15 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Phillies vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Tim Mayza vs Zac Thornton |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 1% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.46 | 3.35 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.7% | 13.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.2% | 18.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.2% | 44.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.8% | 55.6% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Zac Thornton the edge over the Philadelphia Phillies pitching plan (20 points on Leo's pitcher score). Tim Mayza is projected for only 1⅔ innings, with the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Zac Thornton's own line against the Philadelphia Phillies blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Philadelphia Phillies, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Tim Mayza (about 1⅔ innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 5.12 rather than Tim Mayza's own 3.46. Whole-game, that is 4.48 for the New York Mets against 5.12 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Mets.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.22 against -0.30).
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.684 | 0.761 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.334 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.6% | 19.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.698 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.726 (+0.025 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.26 (-0.189 vs szn) | 4.67 (+0.426 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 | 0.320 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.2% (-3.6% vs szn) | 20.8% (-1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.320 wOBA to 0.309. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-68 | 69-84 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.22 | -0.30 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.25 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.25 | 4.55 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.701 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.713 | 0.677 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.9/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.5/10, Below average | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.68 | 2.55 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.68 | 0.97 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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