MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Houston Astros moneyline
The case for Houston Astros
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Houston Astros remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 8.2/10: conviction 18.1, pitching plan 20, bullpen 19.17, offense 25. LyDia projects 59.0% against a 62.7% no-vig market number, a -3.8% model edge at -177. Houston Astros owns the starting pitcher edge by 34 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Houston Astros's pen efficiency: Effective (7.4/10). Pitching plan: Carson Whisenhunt 4.5 IP + remaining bullpen 4.5 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Houston Astros is swinging a hot bat (+0.053 OPS); San Francisco Giants is in a cold stretch (-0.083 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Hunter Brown vs Carson Whisenhunt |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 60°F, 1% precipitation chance, 13 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 31 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.53 | 7.25 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.24 | 1.84 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.6% | 4.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.6% | 19.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.9 | 6.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 61.3% | 45.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 38.7% | 54.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Hunter Brown a 34-point edge over Carson Whisenhunt, driven mainly by ERA (3.53 vs 7.25) and WHIP (1.24 vs 1.84).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Giants are 2-8 in their last 10, averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.21 against -0.55).
| Metric | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.787 | 0.631 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.345 | 0.283 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 20.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.762 (+0.028 vs szn) | 0.647 (-0.067 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.87 (+0.236 vs szn) | 4.00 (-0.101 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.334 (+0.012 vs szn) | 0.289 (-0.024 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.8% (-0.6% vs szn) | 22.2% (+1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.289. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.012 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-59 | 49-70 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.21 | -0.55 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.63 | 4.10 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.84 | 4.66 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.714 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 21.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.706 | 0.732 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 8.9/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 7.4/10, Effective | 2.9/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 4.5/10, Normal | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.3 | 27.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.77 | 6.26 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.69 | 1.90 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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