MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Red Sox vs Blue Jays
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Starting pitcher edge conflicts with the model side.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Patrick Sandoval vs Dylan Cease |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 1% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from E. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 6 |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 55 | 85 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.38 | 2.28 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.67 | 1.04 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.4 | 13.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.8% | 26.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.9% | 36.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.2% | 10.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.2% | 50.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.8% | 50.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Dylan Cease a 30-point edge over Patrick Sandoval, driven mainly by WHIP (1.04 vs 1.67) and K-BB% (26.1% vs 13.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.70 against -0.48).
| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.820 | 0.654 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.357 | 0.291 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.0% | 19.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.781 (+0.060 vs szn) | 0.639 (-0.040 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.68 (+1.239 vs szn) | 3.32 (-0.605 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.341 (+0.023 vs szn) | 0.284 (-0.017 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.7% (-1.0% vs szn) | 19.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.341 wOBA to 0.284. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-54 | 57-63 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.70 | -0.48 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.44 | 3.92 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.74 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.679 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.703 | 0.621 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.5/10, High risk | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 9.9/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 34.7 | 38.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 11 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.34 | 3.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.95 | 1.55 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.