MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at Citi Field · 3:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Mets remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.9/10: conviction 8.63, pitching plan 22, bullpen 7.81, offense 30.13. LyDia projects 72.3% against a 53.0% no-vig market number, a 19.2% model edge at -117. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 49 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (5.7/10). Pitching plan: Ethan Pecko 4.0 IP + remaining bullpen 5.0 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: New York Mets is near its season form (-0.004 OPS); Houston Astros is in a cold stretch (-0.065 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Astros 6, Mets 3
How the analysis held up
Houston Astros won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Zac Thornton (New York Mets), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ethan Pecko: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA). The edge held up.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 4.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Houston Astros pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (6.75 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Mets pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Houston Astros scored 6, 2.9 more than the 3.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Houston Astros bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 4.0 innings), and Houston Astros's offense scored 2.9 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Ethan Pecko vs Zac Thornton |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 2% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 34 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.23 | 2.93 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.54 | 1.16 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.2 | 6.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 0.0% | 12.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 15.5% | 5.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 6.2 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.1% | 47.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 67.9% | 52.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Zac Thornton a 38-point edge over Ethan Pecko, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.1 vs 6.2) and HR/9 (1.03 vs 2.77).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.31 against -0.39).
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.660 | 0.690 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.288 | 0.305 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.0% | 23.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.717 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.724 (+0.029 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.41 (-0.147 vs szn) | 4.04 (-0.065 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 | 0.319 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.2% | 23.4% (+0.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.313. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 68-68 | 61-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.31 | -0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.55 | 4.10 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.87 | 4.49 |
| Season OPS | 0.725 | 0.694 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.707 | 0.694 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.0/10, Tired | 6.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 3.7/10, Below average | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.7/10, High risk | 5.7/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.3 | 20.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.15 | 3.10 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.37 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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