MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 30, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 2:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Pirates vs Cardinals
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Pirates 5, Cardinals 4
How the analysis held up
Pittsburgh Pirates won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Braxton Ashcraft (Pittsburgh Pirates), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Matthew Liberatore: 5.0 IP, 2 ER (3.60 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 3 ER (4.76 ERA). The edge held up.
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 3.1 innings (2.70 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Braxton Ashcraft vs Matthew Liberatore |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 89°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 52 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.59 | 5.41 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 1.46 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.4% | 8.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.1% | 39.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 44.9% | 60.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Braxton Ashcraft a 21-point edge over Matthew Liberatore, driven mainly by WHIP (1.08 vs 1.46) and ERA (3.59 vs 5.41).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.19 against -0.11).
| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.593 | 0.726 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.269 | 0.320 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.0 | 5.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 28.7% | 22.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.640 (-0.093 vs szn) | 0.707 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.71 (-1.134 vs szn) | 4.62 (+0.200 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.288 (-0.037 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.7% (+2.1% vs szn) | 21.9% (+1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.288. Pirates are striking out at 26.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-71 | 68-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.19 | -0.11 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.85 | 4.42 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.66 | 4.53 |
| Season OPS | 0.732 | 0.696 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.6% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.678 | 0.691 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.8/10, High risk | 9.6/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 3.1/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 7.9/10, Tired | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.3 | 29.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.84 | 6.83 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.02 | 1.48 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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