MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at Great American Ball Park · 12:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.6/10: conviction 8.43, pitching plan 29.33, offense 28.71. LyDia projects 71.9% against a 56.4% no-vig market number, a 15.5% model edge at -131. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 17 points. Bullpen read: Both bullpens stressed. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is a touch above its season form (+0.048 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is swinging a hot bat (+0.120 OPS). Recent form leans against this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Great American Ball Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kyle Harrison vs Brady Singer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 55 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.45 | 4.83 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 1.45 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.9 | 7.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.6% | 11.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.1% | 18.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 7.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.7% | 48.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.3% | 51.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Kyle Harrison a 17-point edge over Brady Singer, driven mainly by K-BB% (22.6% vs 11.4%) and K/9 (10.9 vs 7.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Reds are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.20 against -0.77).
| Metric | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.787 | 0.826 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.346 | 0.358 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.9% | 24.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.758 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.693 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.25 (+0.229 vs szn) | 4.18 |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.335 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.306 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.1% (+1.5% vs szn) | 25.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.335 wOBA to 0.306. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 25.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 88-55 | 68-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.20 | -0.77 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.02 | 4.18 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.82 | 4.94 |
| Season OPS | 0.739 | 0.706 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 25.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.755 | 0.745 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Reds are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 8.3/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.7/10, Average | 5.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.1/10, Tired | 7.9/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.0 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.34 | 2.92 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.22 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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