MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 17, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Miami Marlins
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 74.2% against a 68.1% no-vig market number, a 6.1% model edge at -230. Lab Rating 8.1/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 20, bullpen 12, offense 29.25. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Effective (5.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 24.1 points from 98.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 74.2%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is swinging a hot bat (+0.074 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch below its season form (-0.042 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Janson Junk vs Cristopher Sánchez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 87°F, 17% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6⅓ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 59 | 86 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.41 | 2.54 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.6 | 10.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.7% | 22.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.2% | 28.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 5.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.7% | 63.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.3% | 36.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Cristopher Sánchez a 27-point edge over Janson Junk, driven mainly by K/9 (10.5 vs 6.6) and K-BB% (22.6% vs 10.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.16 against +0.07).
| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.687 | 0.785 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.309 | 0.344 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.9% | 16.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.033 vs szn) | 0.755 (+0.044 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.07 (-0.326 vs szn) | 4.93 (+0.462 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.311 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.331 (+0.018 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.0% (+1.3% vs szn) | 20.2% (-2.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.331 wOBA to 0.311. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.018 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-61 | 67-58 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.16 | +0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.40 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.24 | 4.39 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.711 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 22.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.702 | 0.719 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.2/10, Below average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.7/10, Tired | 5.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.0 | 19.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.29 | 3.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.32 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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