MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 17, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 8:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 74.1% against a 60.2% no-vig market number, a 13.9% model edge at -162. Lab Rating 7.5/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 18, bullpen 13.82, offense 23.28. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Average (5.4/10). It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.5/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate. Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is a touch above its season form (+0.023 OPS); Chicago White Sox is swinging a hot bat (+0.064 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Luis Castillo vs Shota Imanaga |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 57 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.96 | 3.74 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.9% | 23.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.3% | 40.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.7% | 59.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Shota Imanaga a 18-point edge over Luis Castillo, driven mainly by WHIP (1.10 vs 1.35) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 2.8).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.80 against +0.38).
| Metric | White Sox | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.794 | 0.777 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.348 | 0.340 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.0% | 22.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.720 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.788 (+0.034 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.74 (-0.089 vs szn) | 5.68 (+0.519 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 | 0.345 (+0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.7% (+0.8% vs szn) | 23.2% (+1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.345 wOBA to 0.318. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.012 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 24.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 65-58 | 72-53 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.38 | +0.80 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.83 | 5.16 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.45 | 4.36 |
| Season OPS | 0.730 | 0.754 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.9% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.734 | 0.738 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.3/10, High risk | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.8/10, Average | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 9.4/10, High risk | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 31.3 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.88 | 3.91 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.13 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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