MLB matchup analysis

Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick

Friday, September 11, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET

Lynold Rivera
Founder and Model Developer · Updated Sep 11, 2026, 3:09 PM EDT

Pass

LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Yankees

Lab Rating

6.0/10

Model lean

Mets 50.9%

Market probability

38.2%

Model edge

+12.7%

Best moneyline

+158

Sportsbooks checked

LyDia model

50.9%

Market

38.2%

The case for New York Mets

Bats are hot: +0.020 wOBA

New York Mets is outhitting its own season form over the last 15 days. Recent form is context, not a model input, but it points the same way here.

The case for New York Yankees

Late-inning bullpen advantage

New York Mets relievers have a 7.03 ERA over the last 7 days; New York Yankees relievers have a 1.86. If this is still close after six innings, that gap favors New York Yankees.

Team strength favors New York Yankees

Before any pitcher or bullpen adjustment, LyDia's own team-strength model has New York Yankees ahead (61.2% to 54.0%). The pick still comes from New York Mets once the pitcher and bullpen terms are applied.

Why it is not official

Below the 61.0% official gate

Win probability is 50.9%. LyDia does not make a game official below 61.0%, no matter how good the price is. This is a value spot, not a high-confidence winner.

Setup quality below the bar

Lab Rating is 6.0/10, under the 7.2/10 required for an official pick.

Own bullpen carries risk: 8.6/10

The New York Mets bullpen comes in high risk. A lead after six innings is less safe than usual.

Why the setup score is what it is

Conviction: 0/10

LyDia's own win probability for New York Mets (50.9%) is close enough to a coin flip that the rating credits little or no conviction -- credit only starts above 55%.

Pitching plan: 32/40

Nolan McLean rates 74 on LyDia's pitcher score, judged on its own merits (50-80 is the credited range). That is a strong start on its own, and it earns most or all of the available credit here.

Offense: 28.23/50

New York Mets's recent offensive form clearly outpaces New York Yankees's over the tracked windows.

Why the price is what it is

Team strength: 54.0%

Before any pitcher or bullpen adjustment, LyDia's team-strength model alone makes New York Mets 54.0% to win. Everything below moves the price from this starting point.

Pitcher score gap: 4 points

The pitcher-score gap favors New York Mets by 4 points. This is the biggest single mover of the price -- a large gap moves it a lot, a small gap barely moves it.

Bullpen adjustment: -0.072

The bullpen-fatigue gap between the two pens nudges the price toward New York Yankees. This moves the price less than the starting pitchers do, since a starter covers more of the game than the bullpen.

Net effect: 54.0% -> 50.9%

Team strength alone had New York Mets at 54.0%. After the pitcher and bullpen terms, the price is 50.9% -- the same number shown as Model Lean above.

The verdict LyDia passes. The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.

Read the full model output

The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.

Game information

Matchup	New York Mets at New York Yankees
Date	Friday, September 11, 2026
First pitch	7:05 PM ET
Venue	Yankee Stadium
Starting pitchers	Nolan McLean vs Carlos Rodón
Weather	Game-time forecast: 76°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NW.

Starting pitcher matchup

Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →

Nolan McLeanMets · RHP

Carlos RodónYankees · LHP

Metric	Mets	Yankees
Pitching plan	Traditional starter	Traditional starter
Expected innings	5⅔	5
Throws	R	L
LyDia pitcher score (higher is better)	74	70
ERA (lower is better)	3.06	3.09
WHIP (lower is better)	1.14	1.17
K/9 (higher is better)	10.0	9.8
K-BB% (higher is better)	17.0%	13.5%
K% (higher is better)	26.7%	26.2%
BB% (lower is better)	9.7%	12.7%
BB/9 (lower is better)	3.6	4.8
HR/9 (lower is better)	0.8	0.8
Ground-ball rate	55.1%	36.7%
Fly-ball rate	44.9%	63.3%

Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Nolan McLean a 4-point edge over Carlos Rodón, driven mainly by BB/9 (3.6 vs 4.8) and expected innings (5.8 vs 4.9).

How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.

Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →

Nolan McLean strikeouts

6.1 LyDia projected Ks

No K play · -0.4K difference is below LyDia's 0.7K threshold

Market 6.5K · O +110 / U -125 · 7 books

Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.

Recent form

Full Stats page →

Both sides arrive in similar form. Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.90 against -0.27).

Metric	Mets	Yankees
Last 10	7-3	7-3
Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home)	6-4 on the road	7-3 at home
OPS, last 15 days	0.751	0.730
wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read)	0.331	0.322
Runs per game, last 15 days	5.9	5.1
K% last 15 days (lower is better)	21.0%	24.0%

Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.

30-day offense

Full offense tool →

Last 30 days	Mets	Yankees
OPS	0.746 (+0.043 vs szn)	0.726
Runs per game	4.80 (+0.505 vs szn)	4.89 (+0.320 vs szn)
wOBA (model offense input)	0.328 (+0.017 vs szn)	0.321
K% (lower is better)	21.8% (-0.6% vs szn)	24.9%

Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.328 wOBA to 0.321. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 24.9% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.

Season profile

Full Stats page →

Metric	Mets	Yankees
Record	68-78	84-62
Run differential / game (team quality)	-0.27	+0.90
Runs scored / game (offense, season)	4.29	4.57
Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better)	4.57	3.67
Season OPS	0.703	0.721
K% season (lower is better)	22.4%	24.6%
OPS vs opposing hand (season)	0.689	0.713

Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.

The Map

Full interactive map →

Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Yankees are highlighted.

Horizontal Vertical

Bullpen matchup

Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →

Mets

Combined risk

8.6 High risk

Fatigue

7.5 Tired

Efficiency

2.9 Struggling

Yankees

Combined risk

6.2 Tired

Fatigue

7.0 Tired

Efficiency

6.6 Effective

Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.

Metric	Mets	Yankees
Fatigue	7.5/10, Tired	7.0/10, Tired
Efficiency	2.9/10, Struggling	6.6/10, Effective
Combined risk	8.6/10, High risk	6.2/10, Tired
Relief innings, last 7 days	24.3	19.3
Back-to-back arms	6	5
7-day ERA	7.03	1.86
7-day WHIP	1.56	1.14

Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.

Run total projection

Full Totals Projections →

LyDia projection

8.3

Market total

8.5

Projected away runs

3.2

Projected home runs

5.1

Over price

+104

Under price

-118

New York Mets team total

3.2 projected

Line Not available · O Not available / U Not available

Market line pending

New York Yankees team total

5.1 projected

Line Not available · O Not available / U Not available

Market line pending

The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.

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