MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Friday, September 11, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 2:20 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 69.6% model win probability and 7.9/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 69.6% against a 52.9% no-vig market number, a 16.8% model edge at -122. Chicago Cubs owns the starting pitcher edge by 13 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Effective (5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 19.3 points from 88.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.6%. Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is swinging a hot bat (+0.084 OPS); Pittsburgh Pirates is near its season form (-0.004 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Friday, September 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Wilber Dotel vs Shota Imanaga |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 0% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 2 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 53 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.93 | 3.88 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.2% | 18.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 5.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.0% | 41.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.0% | 59.0% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan the edge over Shota Imanaga (12 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Wilber Dotel is projected for only 2 innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Shota Imanaga's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Wilber Dotel (about 2 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.13 rather than Wilber Dotel's own 4.93. Whole-game, that is 3.13 for the Pittsburgh Pirates against 4.72 on the other side, so the blended read leans Pittsburgh Pirates.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cubs are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.87 against +0.24).
| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.730 | 0.852 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.326 | 0.371 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.1% | 17.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.687 (-0.047 vs szn) | 0.828 (+0.057 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.04 (-0.767 vs szn) | 6.04 (+0.691 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.307 (-0.019 vs szn) | 0.360 (+0.020 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.3% (-0.8% vs szn) | 19.6% (-1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.360 wOBA to 0.307. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.020 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-73 | 81-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.24 | +0.87 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.82 | 5.31 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.58 | 4.44 |
| Season OPS | 0.734 | 0.768 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 21.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.685 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.6/10, High risk | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.7/10, Effective | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.7 | 21.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.19 | 3.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.97 | 1.33 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.