MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Rogers Centre · 1:37 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
The case for Baltimore Orioles
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Toronto Blue Jays is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 70.5% model win probability and 9.1/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 70.5% against a 57.8% no-vig market number, a 12.7% model edge at -148. Toronto Blue Jays owns the starting pitcher edge by 16 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Toronto Blue Jays's pen efficiency: Effective (6.9/10). Lineup check: Toronto Blue Jays is swinging a hot bat (+0.074 OPS); Baltimore Orioles is in a cold stretch (-0.062 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:37 PM ET |
| Venue | Rogers Centre |
| Starting pitchers | Trevor Rogers vs Dylan Cease |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from S. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 6 |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.15 | 2.40 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 12.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.1% | 24.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.9% | 35.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.9% | 10.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.1% | 48.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.9% | 51.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Dylan Cease a 16-point edge over Trevor Rogers, driven mainly by K/9 (12.7 vs 8.2) and K-BB% (24.8% vs 16.1%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.19 against -0.26).
| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.648 | 0.769 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.290 | 0.341 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.6% | 18.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.689 (-0.021 vs szn) | 0.773 (+0.078 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.57 (+0.068 vs szn) | 4.54 (+0.512 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.304 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.340 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.7% (+1.1% vs szn) | 17.9% (-1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays have been the better offense, 0.340 wOBA to 0.304. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.032 wOBA). Orioles are striking out at 25.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-77 | 74-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.19 | -0.26 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.50 | 4.03 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.69 | 4.28 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.695 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.6% | 19.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.707 | 0.651 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Blue Jays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.1/10, Normal | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.3/10, Effective | 6.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.5/10, Normal | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.3 | 30.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.59 | 1.80 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.00 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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