MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 2:20 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Chicago Cubs moneyline
The case for Chicago Cubs
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Chicago Cubs is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 62.4% model win probability and 7.3/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 62.4% against a 59.9% no-vig market number, a 2.5% model edge at -157. Chicago Cubs owns the starting pitcher edge by 5 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Chicago Cubs's pen efficiency: Effective (6.2/10). Lineup check: Chicago Cubs is swinging a hot bat (+0.094 OPS); Pittsburgh Pirates is near its season form (-0.003 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 2% precipitation chance, 11 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.25 | 4.03 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.34 | 1.22 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.2 | 7.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.5% | 11.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.6% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.6% | 49.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.4% | 50.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Matthew Boyd a 5-point edge over Bubba Chandler, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.7 vs 4.5) and expected innings (5.8 vs 5.1).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 6.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Cubs carry the better run differential per game (+0.93 against +0.17).
| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.728 | 0.865 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.325 | 0.376 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 6.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.8% | 17.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.661 (-0.070 vs szn) | 0.834 (+0.063 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.73 (-1.061 vs szn) | 6.00 (+0.658 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.297 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.362 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.5% (-0.6% vs szn) | 18.8% (-2.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.362 wOBA to 0.297. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.023 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-75 | 83-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.17 | +0.93 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.79 | 5.34 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.62 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.771 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.0% | 21.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.684 | 0.757 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 6.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.7 | 20.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.74 | 2.25 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.43 | 1.25 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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