MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Orioles vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for Baltimore Orioles
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Chris Bassitt vs Xzavion Curry |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 1% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Role unknown |
| Expected innings | 5 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 49 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.88 | 3.44 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.59 | 1.31 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.6 | 5.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.0% | 15.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.7% | 10.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 22.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.2% | 78.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Xzavion Curry a 11-point edge over Chris Bassitt, driven mainly by WHIP (1.31 vs 1.59) and ERA (3.44 vs 4.88).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.21 against -0.25).
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.656 | 0.799 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.293 | 0.349 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.8 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 29.4% | 18.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.674 (-0.035 vs szn) | 0.734 (+0.030 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.21 (-0.266 vs szn) | 4.85 (+0.548 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.298 (-0.016 vs szn) | 0.322 (+0.011 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 27.3% (+2.5% vs szn) | 20.8% (-1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.298. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA). Orioles are striking out at 27.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-78 | 69-82 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.21 | -0.25 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.48 | 4.30 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.69 | 4.54 |
| Season OPS | 0.709 | 0.704 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.9% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.707 | 0.714 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.6/10, High risk | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 2.8/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 9.1/10, High risk | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 20.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.84 | 6.97 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.18 | 1.65 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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