MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Phillies vs Nationals
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Nationals Park |
| Starting pitchers | Zack Wheeler vs Jared Simpson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Role unknown |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 44 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.14 | 6.75 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.07 | 0.75 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.1% | 7.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.0% | 28.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.8% | 21.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 6.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.0% | 71.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Zack Wheeler a 33-point edge over Jared Simpson, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.8 vs 6.8) and K-BB% (22.1% vs 7.1%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Nationals are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.19 against +0.04).
| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.670 | 0.699 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.296 | 0.306 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.6% | 25.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.709 | 0.687 (-0.064 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.62 (+0.125 vs szn) | 4.15 (-0.965 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 | 0.303 (-0.027 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.0% (-3.9% vs szn) | 22.8% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.303.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 83-68 | 71-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.49 | 5.12 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.30 | 5.08 |
| Season OPS | 0.711 | 0.751 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.710 | 0.739 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Nationals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.4/10, Normal | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.1/10, Below average | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.4/10, Tired | 7.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.0 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.30 | 5.25 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.70 | 1.21 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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