MLB matchup analysis
Orioles vs Red Sox (Game 2) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at Fenway Park · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: model edge 35, pitcher 2.4, bullpen 9.4, market 15, base 5. LyDia projects 64.4% against a 55.9% no-vig market number, a 8.5% model edge at -135. Baltimore Orioles owns the starting pitcher edge by 14 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Effective (6.7/10). Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is swinging a hot bat (+0.092 OPS); Baltimore Orioles is a touch above its season form (+0.047 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, July 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Kyle Bradish vs TBD |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 17% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Orioles | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Probable pitcher | Kyle Bradish | TBD |
| Throws | R | Not available |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 64 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.61 | Not available |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.35 | Not available |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | Not available |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | Not available |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.3% | Not available |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | Not available |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.4% | Not available |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 5.6 | Not available |
Pitcher edge: Baltimore Orioles by 14 points.
How to read this: highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter, not just any difference. K-BB% is strikeouts minus walks per batter faced, one of the most predictive skill stats in pitching. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout projections Full K board →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (59 graded starts). Leans are context, not official picks.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →| Metric | Orioles | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 49-52 | 51-48 |
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 10-0 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.14 | +0.46 |
| Runs scored / game (offense) | 4.59 | 4.23 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, lower better) | 4.73 | 3.77 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.766 | 0.801 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.709 |
| OPS change | +0.047 | +0.092 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.4% | 21.9% |
| K% last 15 days | 26.6% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand | Not available | 0.685 |
Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; offense splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including hot and cold streaks and the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Orioles and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Orioles | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.0/10, Below average | 6.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 3 |
| 3-day ERA | 6.75 | 1.42 |
| 3-day WHIP | 1.25 | 1.26 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.5 runs above the market total. This projection is matchup context, not an official total pick unless LyDia explicitly labels it as one.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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