MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 3:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Seattle Mariners moneyline
The case for Seattle Mariners
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Seattle Mariners is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 66.1% against a 58.4% no-vig market number, a 7.8% model edge at -150. Lab Rating 9.1/10: model edge 33.95, pitcher 25, bullpen 11.58, market 15, base 5. Seattle Mariners's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.9/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability up 1.6 points from 64.6% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 66.1%. It stayed a value watch because model win probability is 66.1%, below the 72.0% official-pick gate. Lineup check: Seattle Mariners is a touch below its season form (-0.045 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is swinging a hot bat (+0.094 OPS). Recent form leans against this side — noted, not modeled.
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, July 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Brady Singer vs Emerson Hancock |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 86°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Probable pitcher | Brady Singer | Emerson Hancock |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 57 | 77 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.56 | 3.17 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.41 | 1.01 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.6 | 8.5 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.9% | 17.7% |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.5% | 43.8% |
| IP per start (higher is better) | 5.1 | 5.5 |
Pitcher edge: Seattle Mariners by 20 points.
How to read this: highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter, not just any difference. K-BB% is strikeouts minus walks per batter faced, one of the most predictive skill stats in pitching. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout projections Full K board →
Projections are self-calibrated against graded results (59 graded starts). Leans are context, not official picks.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 46-54 | 51-51 |
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.65 | +0.19 |
| Runs scored / game (offense) | 4.18 | 4.04 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, lower better) | 4.83 | 3.85 |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.802 | 0.643 |
| Season OPS | 0.708 | 0.688 |
| OPS change | +0.094 | -0.045 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| K% last 15 days | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand | 0.691 | 0.709 |
Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; offense splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including hot and cold streaks and the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 0.9/10, Struggling | 7.9/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 7.4/10, Tired | 5.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 3 days | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 1 | 5 |
| 3-day ERA | 12.00 | 1.13 |
| 3-day WHIP | 2.33 | 0.63 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. This projection is matchup context, not an official total pick unless LyDia explicitly labels it as one.
More games today
All matchups →What could change the prediction
- A listed starting pitcher is scratched or replaced.
- The moneyline moves enough to remove the current model edge.
- A confirmed lineup materially changes the offensive matchup.
- Late bullpen availability differs from the recent workload data.
- Weather or roof conditions change before first pitch.
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