Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Saturday, September 19, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
4
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
4
PASSES
10
Updated Sep 19, 2:37 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.2/10
- Model probability
- 70.5%
- Market probability
- 77.2%
- Model vs market
- -6.6%
- Current price
- -385
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Dodgers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.5/10 versus 5.9/10, which adds late-game risk. Los Angeles Dodgers has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionLos Angeles Dodgers is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.5% win probability, the market is at 77.2%, and the setup carries a 8.2/10 Lab Rating. Los Angeles Dodgers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 12 rating points. Los Angeles Dodgers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 7.9/10 versus 6.0/10. Recent context: 27.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen has been below average lately (4.3/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.0 points from 91.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.5%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Official markets
Moneyline: New York Yankees -159
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.8/10
- Model probability
- 71.4%
- Market probability
- 50.5%
- Model vs market
- +20.9%
- Current price
- -108
- Pitcher edge
- New York Yankees by 16 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 5.3/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.8/10.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 71.4% chance to win, compared with the market's 50.5% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.8/10 Lab Rating. New York Yankees has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 16 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 4.9/10 and Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.2 points from 92.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.4%. At -108, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 71.9%
- Market probability
- 56.1%
- Model vs market
- +15.9%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 4.6/10 versus 8.8/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 32.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 71.9% win probability, the market is at 56.1%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 4.9/10 versus 8.4/10. Cincinnati Reds has 32.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 6 back-to-back arms. Cincinnati Reds's pen has been effective lately (5.8/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.3 points from 93.2% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 64.2%
- Market probability
- 55.6%
- Model vs market
- +8.6%
- Current price
- -134
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. San Diego Padres is 7.2/10 and Miami Marlins is 8.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionSan Diego Padres is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 64.2% win probability, the market is at 55.6%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. San Diego Padres has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 5 rating points. Both bullpens carry high risk. San Diego Padres is 8.2/10 and Miami Marlins is 8.2/10, so the late innings carry meaningful volatility on both sides. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 14.2 points from 78.4% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 64.2%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Christian Scott Under 5.5 -165
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.6/10
- Model probability
- 70.9%
- Market probability
- 40.4%
- Model vs market
- +30.5%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- New York Mets by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- New York Mets has the fresher bullpen, 6.1/10 versus 7.7/10. Philadelphia Phillies has used 22.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionNew York Mets is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.9% win probability, the market is at 40.4%, and the setup carries a 6.6/10 Lab Rating. New York Mets has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. New York Mets has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.3/10 versus 8.8/10. Philadelphia Phillies has 22.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 5 back-to-back arms. Philadelphia Phillies's pen has been struggling lately (2.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.1 points from 91.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.9%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 68.9%
- Market probability
- 66.7%
- Model vs market
- +2.2%
- Current price
- -214
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Cleveland Guardians carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.3/10 versus 7.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Cleveland Guardians has used 31.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.4/10
- Model probability
- 65.2%
- Market probability
- 50.7%
- Model vs market
- +14.4%
- Current price
- -104
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Texas Rangers is 9.4/10 and Toronto Blue Jays is 7.8/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Angels Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 58.0%
- Market probability
- 47.6%
- Model vs market
- +10.4%
- Current price
- +104
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 5 points
- Bullpen read
- Los Angeles Angels has the fresher bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 7.9/10. Minnesota Twins has used 27.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 74.0%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- +16.4%
- Current price
- -143
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 23 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 9.6/10. Colorado Rockies has used 36.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
- Leo side
- Washington Nationals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 58.8%
- Market probability
- 42.7%
- Model vs market
- +16.1%
- Current price
- +128
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Washington Nationals is 7.9/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 6.9/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.0/10
- Model probability
- 60.6%
- Market probability
- 57.5%
- Model vs market
- +3.1%
- Current price
- -144
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 8.2/10 versus 6.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 23.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jackson Jobe Over 4.5 -115
- Leo side
- Chicago White Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.8/10
- Model probability
- 62.0%
- Market probability
- 53.9%
- Model vs market
- +8.1%
- Current price
- -118
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago White Sox by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Chicago White Sox is 9.8/10 and Detroit Tigers is 8.3/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 52.2%
- Market probability
- 44.8%
- Model vs market
- +7.4%
- Current price
- +118
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 7.8/10. Houston Astros has used 27.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.3/10
- Model probability
- 62.7%
- Market probability
- 48.3%
- Model vs market
- +14.4%
- Current price
- +103
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 6.0/10 versus 9.5/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 -102
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.2/10
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 35.2%
- Model vs market
- +19.3%
- Current price
- +180
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Baltimore Orioles is 8.1/10 and Milwaukee Brewers is 10.0/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.