MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Petco Park · 8:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: San Diego Padres moneyline
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Diego Padres remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.8/10: conviction 4.59, pitching plan 26.67, offense 36.92. Leo projects 64.2% against a 55.6% no-vig market number, a 8.6% model edge at -134. San Diego Padres owns the starting pitcher edge by 5 points. Bullpen read: Both bullpens stressed. San Diego Padres's pen efficiency: Below average (3.0/10). Lineup check: San Diego Padres is swinging a hot bat (+0.142 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch above its season form (+0.026 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Eury Pérez vs Casey Mize |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.99 | 3.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 25.7% | 21.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.1% | 35.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.9% | 64.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Casey Mize a 5-point edge over Eury Pérez, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.2 vs 4.0) and WHIP (1.14 vs 1.24).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Marlins are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 and averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.01 against +0.23).
| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 9-1 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.753 | 0.858 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.331 | 0.371 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 5.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.8% | 18.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.725 | 0.774 (+0.058 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.73 (+0.296 vs szn) | 5.12 (+0.726 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.321 | 0.338 (+0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.9% (+1.0% vs szn) | 20.1% (-1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.338 wOBA to 0.321. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.022 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 76-78 | 85-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.01 | +0.23 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.44 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.42 | 4.16 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.716 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 21.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.741 | 0.719 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.0/10, Tired | 7.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.6/10, Average | 3.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 8.2/10, High risk | 8.2/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.7 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.55 | 6.66 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.42 | 1.64 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.2 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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