MLB matchup analysis
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Citi Field · 4:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Mets remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.6/10: conviction 7.95, pitching plan 22.67, offense 35.69. Leo projects 70.9% against a 40.4% no-vig market number, a 30.5% model edge at +140. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 17 points. Bullpen read: Supports Leo side. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Lineup check: New York Mets is swinging a hot bat (+0.070 OPS); Philadelphia Phillies is a touch below its season form (-0.028 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Andrew Painter vs Christian Scott |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.54 | 3.76 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.44 | 1.26 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.8 | 10.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.2% | 17.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 28.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.5% | 10.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.6% | 38.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.4% | 62.0% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Christian Scott a 17-point edge over Andrew Painter, driven mainly by K/9 (10.9 vs 7.8) and ERA (3.76 vs 5.54).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Neither side is playing well. Phillies are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Phillies carry the better run differential per game (+0.20 against -0.28).
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.682 | 0.772 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.303 | 0.339 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.5% | 19.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.734 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.35 (-0.115 vs szn) | 4.81 (+0.548 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 | 0.323 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.7% (-3.1% vs szn) | 20.9% (-1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.308. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-69 | 70-84 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.20 | -0.28 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.46 | 4.26 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.26 | 4.54 |
| Season OPS | 0.710 | 0.702 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.708 | 0.710 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Phillies and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.7/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.9/10, Struggling | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.8/10, High risk | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.7 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.35 | 2.55 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.85 | 0.89 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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