MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at Chase Field · 8:10 PM ET
Leo prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 71.4% model win probability and 7.8/10 Lab Rating. Leo projects 71.4% against a 50.5% no-vig market number, a 20.9% model edge at -108. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 16 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (5.8/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.1 points from 92.5% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 71.4%. Lineup check: New York Yankees is near its season form (+0.012 OPS); Arizona Diamondbacks is a touch above its season form (+0.029 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | Cam Schlittler vs Brandon Pfaadt |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 101°F, 0% precipitation chance, 9 mph wind from W. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 6 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 84 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.95 | 3.77 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.90 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.1 | 6.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 25.5% | 10.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 31.6% | 16.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.1% | 5.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.0% | 48.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.0% | 51.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Cam Schlittler a 16-point edge over Brandon Pfaadt, driven mainly by K/9 (11.1 vs 6.1) and K-BB% (25.5% vs 10.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Diamondbacks are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.93 against -0.05).
| Metric | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.733 | 0.741 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.324 | 0.324 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.8% | 22.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.752 (+0.031 vs szn) | 0.703 (-0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.44 (+0.830 vs szn) | 3.88 (-0.531 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.331 (+0.014 vs szn) | 0.309 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.7% (-0.9% vs szn) | 20.7% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.331 wOBA to 0.309. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.014 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 89-64 | 80-74 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.93 | -0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.61 | 4.42 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.68 | 4.46 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.5% | 19.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.712 | 0.687 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 6.3/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.9/10, Normal | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.0 | 24.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.27 | 2.22 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.14 | 1.23 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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