Angels vs Astros Prediction, Odds and Model Pick

Game information

Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Houston Astros pitching plan the edge over the Los Angeles Angels pitching plan (9 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Both starters are projected for a short outing, so this compares each side's blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not the two starters directly.

Blended read: For the Los Angeles Angels, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than George Klassen (about 3⅔ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.28 rather than George Klassen's own 5.52. For the Houston Astros, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Cristian Javier (about 4 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.70 rather than Cristian Javier's own 6.68. Whole-game, that is 3.70 for the Houston Astros against 4.28 on the other side, so the blended read leans Houston Astros.

How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.

Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →

Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.

Angels are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 2.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Astros are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Astros carry the better run differential per game (-0.24 against -0.69).

Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.

Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.331 wOBA to 0.275. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 25.3% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.

Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.

Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Astros are highlighted.

Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.

Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.

The model projects 0.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.