MLB matchup analysis
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 69.9% against a 55.3% no-vig market number, a 14.6% model edge at -126. Lab Rating 7.8/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 9, bullpen 9, offense 40. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Below average (3.2/10). It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.8/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate. Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is swinging a hot bat (+0.088 OPS); Toronto Blue Jays is a touch below its season form (-0.038 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | José Soriano vs Nick Martinez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 89°F, 5% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 6 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 81 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.16 | 2.74 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.0 | 5.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.0% | 10.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.2% | 14.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.2% | 3.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | 1.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 59.3% | 40.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 40.7% | 59.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Nick Martinez a 9-point edge over José Soriano, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.3 vs 4.2) and WHIP (1.09 vs 1.25).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Rays are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 6.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.43 against -0.45).
| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.640 | 0.828 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.283 | 0.359 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.8 | 6.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.7% | 15.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.636 (-0.042 vs szn) | 0.771 (+0.031 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.39 (-0.512 vs szn) | 4.89 (+0.324 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.283 (-0.017 vs szn) | 0.336 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.2% | 18.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.336 wOBA to 0.283. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-65 | 75-49 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.45 | +0.43 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 3.90 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.36 | 4.14 |
| Season OPS | 0.678 | 0.740 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.699 | 0.765 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Blue Jays and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Blue Jays | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.3/10, High risk | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.4/10, Average | 3.2/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 8.1/10, Tired | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.7 | 27.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 9 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.71 | 6.33 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.24 | 1.67 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.