MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.3/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 20, bullpen 8.02, offense 24.78. LyDia projects 74.1% against a 66.3% no-vig market number, a 7.8% model edge at -210. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 42 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Pitching plan: Cade Gibson 4.5 IP + remaining bullpen 4.5 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is swinging a hot bat (+0.058 OPS); Miami Marlins is near its season form (-0.008 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, August 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Cade Gibson vs Zack Wheeler |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 5% precipitation chance, 1 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Role unknown | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 44 | 86 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.61 | 2.89 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.54 | 1.00 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.8 | 10.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.3% | 23.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.6% | 30.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.3% | 6.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.6% | 51.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.4% | 48.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Zack Wheeler a 42-point edge over Cade Gibson, driven mainly by K-BB% (23.8% vs 8.3%) and WHIP (1.00 vs 1.54).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.15 against +0.08).
| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.723 | 0.770 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.324 | 0.340 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.8% | 15.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.707 (-0.024 vs szn) | 0.749 (+0.037 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.04 (-0.368 vs szn) | 4.93 (+0.450 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.316 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.329 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.4% (+0.8% vs szn) | 19.4% (-3.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.316. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.015 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-62 | 68-58 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.15 | +0.08 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.40 | 4.48 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.25 | 4.40 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.740 | 0.695 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.6/10, Below average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.0 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.85 | 3.93 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.60 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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