MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 9, 2026 at loanDepot park · 1:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Miami Marlins moneyline
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Miami Marlins remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.4/10: conviction 16.78, pitching plan 20, bullpen 12.22, offense 25. LyDia projects 58.5% against a 57.2% no-vig market number, a 1.3% model edge at -138. Miami Marlins owns the starting pitcher edge by 27 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Miami Marlins's pen efficiency: Average (5.1/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 7.8 points from 66.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 58.5%. Pitching plan: Ryan Gusto 4.0 IP + remaining bullpen 5.0 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Miami Marlins is a touch below its season form (-0.036 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is in a cold stretch (-0.111 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Grayson Rodriguez vs Ryan Gusto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 89°F, 5% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 37 | 54 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 7.24 | 4.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.5% | 13.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.4% | 6.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.8% | 51.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 63.2% | 49.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Ryan Gusto a 17-point edge over Grayson Rodriguez, driven mainly by ERA (4.80 vs 7.24) and BB/9 (2.6 vs 3.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 2.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Marlins carry the better run differential per game (+0.05 against -0.70).
| Metric | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.579 | 0.692 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.262 | 0.310 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.5% | 19.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.619 (-0.071 vs szn) | 0.663 (-0.065 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 2.61 (-1.502 vs szn) | 3.25 (-1.089 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.279 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.296 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.0% (+0.7% vs szn) | 22.4% (+0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Marlins have been the better offense, 0.296 wOBA to 0.279. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.025 wOBA). Angels are striking out at 26.0% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 45-72 | 59-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.70 | +0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.11 | 4.34 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.81 | 4.29 |
| Season OPS | 0.690 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 21.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.685 | 0.736 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.7/10, Effective | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.13 | 3.60 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.26 | 1.45 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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